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Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - CESifo - 2012
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877703
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Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs
Berg, Tim Oliver; Henzel, Steffen - CESifo - 2014
the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877728
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Determinants of Country Beta Risk in Poland
Wdowinski, Piotr - CESifo - 2004
In the paper we analyze determinants of the capital market beta risk in Poland in the monthly period 1996-2002. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005249463
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Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan - CESifo - 2004
This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766178
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Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production
Carstensen, Kai; Wohlrabe, Klaus; Ziegler, Christina - CESifo - 2010
In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect … to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008498989
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Forecasting Nonlinear Aggregates and Aggregates with Time-varying Weights
Luetkepohl, Helmut - CESifo - 2010
aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed … theoretical setup and the forecasting results. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008534048
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Forecasting Euro Area Real GDP: Optimal Pooling of Information
Hülsewig, Oliver; Mayr, Johannes; Wollmershäuser, Timo - CESifo - 2008
This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are … information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181446
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Cointegration Analysis with Mixed-Frequency Data
Seong, Byeongchan; Ahn, Sung K.; Zadrozny, Peter - CESifo - 2007
We develop a method for directly modeling cointegrated multivariate time series that are observed in mixed frequencies. We regard lower-frequency data as regularly (or irregularly) missing and treat them with higher-frequency data by adopting a state-space model. This utilizes the structure of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405735
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Forecasting and Combining Competing Models of Exchange Rate Determination
Altavilla, Carlo; Grauwe, Paul De - CESifo - 2006
This paper investigates the out-of-sample forecast performance of a set of competing models of exchange rate … combining different forecasting procedures generally produces more accurate forecasts than can be attained from a single model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405901
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The Warsaw Stock Exchange Index WIG: Modelling and Forecasting
Wdowinski, Piotr; Zglinska-Pietrzak, Aneta - CESifo - 2005
In this paper we have assessed an influence of the NYSE Stock Exchange indexes (DJIA and NASDAQ) and European Stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406048