Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country fixed effects are added to panel … estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries over 439 months … unemployment rate 12 months in advance based on individuals' fears of unemployment, their perceptions of the economic situation and …

variables while it is uncorrelated with life satisfaction. The unemployment rate and the CPI reduce both. We analyze data for 29 … European countries to predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead using individuals' fears of unemployment in the … presence of country and year fixed effects and lagged unemployment. We also use firms' expectations of future employment, which …