This paper finds strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is "low"--which our baseline … inflation. This finding is consistent with evidence of downward nominal wage and price rigidity. When inflation is high, the … inflation regimes at 2, 3, or 4 percent inflation or for a threshold based on country-specific medians of inflation. In this …

constraints, and shocks to them, shape inflation. We show that binding constraints for domestic and foreign producers shift … recent US data, we find that binding constraints explain half of the increase in inflation during 2021-2022. In particular …, tight capacity served to amplify the impact of loose monetary policy in 2021, fueling the inflation takeoff …

inflation in the 2020s. Economic slack is measured as firms' job vacancies over the number of unemployed workers. After showing …. Policy implications include the thesis that appropriate monetary policy can bring inflation down without a significant …

fraction of price changes increases with inflation. They also predict implausibly large menu costs and misallocation in the …

flows, short-term and long-term inflation expectations and a forward-looking New-Keynesian Phillips curve for the 1960 … of 2021. This pronounced rise was primarily informed by strong wage growth rather than changes in inflation expectations …. Our model forecasts strong wage growth to moderate only sluggishly continuing to put upward pressure on inflation in the …

curves display similar patterns of instability and to examine lead-lag patterns in how individual inflation series change. We …