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Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning
Evans, George W.; McGough, Bruce - Center for Financial Studies - 2003
interest rate rule, raising the possibility of inefficient fluctuations due to the dependence of expectations on extraneous … combine forward looking expectations and predetermined variables. We consider a variety of specifications that incorporate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005120769
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Household economic decisions under the shadow of terrorism
Christelis, Dimitris; Georgarakos, Dimitris - Center for Financial Studies - 2009
expectations about terrorism, and study the effects these last have on households' portfolio choices and spending patterns. We find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958603
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Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning
Evans, George W.; McGough, Bruce - Center for Financial Studies - 2003
interest rate rule, raising the possibility of inefficient fluctuations due to the dependence of expectations on extraneous … combine forward looking expectations and predetermined variables. We consider a variety of specifications that incorporate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986495
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On the economics of crisis contracts
Aptus, Elias; Britz, Volker; Gersbach, Hans - Center for Financial Studies - 2014
We examine the impact of so-called Crisis Contracts on bank managers' risktaking incentives and on the probability of banking crises. Under a Crisis Contract, managers are required to contribute a pre-specified share of their past earnings to finance public rescue funds when a crisis occurs....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958513
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Retirement Expectations, Pension Reforms, and Their Impact on Private Wealth Accumulation
Bottazzi, Renata; Jappelli, Tullio; Padula, Mario - Center for Financial Studies - 2006
We estimate the effect of pension reforms on households’ expectations of retirement outcomes and private wealth … expectations of the age at which workers expect to retire and of the ratio of pension benefits to pre-retirement income between … 1989 and 2002. We find that workers have revised expectations in the direction suggested by the reform and that there is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005138842
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Retirement expectations, pension reforms, and their impact on private wealth accumulation
Bottazzi, Renata; Jappelli, Tullio; Padula, Mario - Center for Financial Studies - 2006
We estimate the effect of pension reforms on households expectations of retirement outcomes and private wealth … expectations of the age at which workers expect to retire and of the ratio of pension benefits to pre-retirement income between … 1989 and 2002. We find that workers have revised expectations in the direction suggested by the reform and that there is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986388
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Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky Prices
Adam, Klaus - Center for Financial Studies - 2003
by avoiding simultaneity between prices and price expectations. Adaptive learning then robustly selects the determinate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005120770
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Are Stationary Hyperinflation Paths Learnable?
Adam, Klaus; Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - Center for Financial Studies - 2004
Earlier studies of the seigniorage inflation model have found that the high-inflation steady state is not stable under adaptive learning. We reconsider this issue and analyze the full set of solutions for the linearized model. Our main focus is on stationary hyperinflationary paths near the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005120784
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Escapist Policy Rules
Bullard, James; Cho, In-Koo - Center for Financial Studies - 2003
We study a simple, microfounded macroeconomic system in which the monetary authority employs a Taylor-type policy rule. We analyze situations in which the self-confirming equilibrium is unique and learnable according to Bullard and Mitra (2002). We explore the prospects for the use of ‘large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022420
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The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik - Center for Financial Studies - 2010
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008504547