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Money in monetary policy design under uncertainty: A formal characterization of ECB-style cross-checking

Beck, Günter W.; Wieland, Volker - Center for Financial Studies - 2006

The European Central Bank has assigned a special role to money in its two pillar strategy and has received much … criticism for this decision. The case against including money in the central banks interest rate rule is based on a standard … decades. In this paper, we develop a justification for including money in the interest rate rule by allowing for imperfect …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986372

Money in monetary policy design: Monetary cross-checking in the New-Keynesian Model

Beck, Guenter W.; Wieland, Volker - Center for Financial Studies - 2009

criticized for failing to explain common trends in money growth and inflation, and that therefore money should be used as a cross …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958545

Money in Monetary Policy Design under Uncertainty: A Formal Characterization of ECB-Style Cross-Checking

Beck, Guenter W.; Wieland, Volker - Center for Financial Studies - 2007

The European Central Bank has assigned a special role to money in its two pillar strategy and has received much … criticism for this decision. The case against including money in the central bank’s interest rate rule is based on a standard … decades. In this paper, we develop a justification for including money in the interest rate rule by allowing for imperfect …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005176447

Central bank misperceptions and the role of money in interest rate rules

Beck, Günter W.; Wieland, Volker - Center for Financial Studies - 2008

modified to account for observed money growth and inflation trends, and that monetary trends may serve as a useful cross … persistent errors in monetary policy and sustained trends in money growth and inflation. If interest rate prescriptions derived … from Keynesian-style models are augmented with a cross-check against money-based estimates of trend inflation, inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986449

Central Bank Misperceptions and the Role of Money in Interest Rate Rules

Wieland, Volker; Beck, Günter W. - Center for Financial Studies - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005007635

The role of expectations in economic fluctuations and the efficacy of monetary policy

Kurz, Mordecai; Jin, Hehui; Motolese, Maurizio - Center for Financial Studies - 2003

We show diverse beliefs is an important propagation mechanism of fluctuations, money non neutrality and efficacy of … policy rules render it vertical. (iv) Although prices are flexible, money shocks result in less than proportional changes in … inflation hence the aggregate price level appears sticky with respect to money shocks. (v) Discretion in monetary policy adds a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986484

Credit cycles and macro fundamentals

Koopman, Siem Jan; Kräussl, Roman; Lucas, André - Center for Financial Studies - 2006

We study the relation between the credit cycle and macro economic fundamentals in an intensity based framework. Using rating transition and default data of U.S. corporates from Standard and Poors over the period 19802005 we directly estimate the credit cycle from the micro rating data. We relate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986487

Learning to Forecast and Cyclical Behavior of Output and Inflation

Adam, Klaus - Center for Financial Studies - 2003

This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates with the help of econometric models. Agents use least squares learning to estimate two competing models of which one is consistent with rational expectations once learning is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958541

The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy

Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - Center for Financial Studies - 2010

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958731

Bayesian Fan Charts for U.K. Inflation: Forecasting and Sources of Uncertainty in an Evolving Monetary System

Cogley, Timothy; Morozov, Sergei; Sargent, Thomas J. - Center for Financial Studies - 2003

We estimate a Bayesian vector autoregression for the U.K. with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities. We use it to characterize posterior densities for several objects that are useful for designing and evaluating monetary policy, including local approximations to the mean,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022410