Cogley, Timothy; Morozov, Sergei; Sargent, Thomas J. - Center for Financial Studies - 2003
policy, including local approximations to the mean, persistence, and volatility of inflation. We present diverse sources of … uncertainty that impinge on the posterior predictive density for inflation, including model uncertainty, policy drift, structural … shifts and other shocks. We use a recently developed minimum entropy method to bring outside information to bear on inflation …