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Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning
Evans, George W.; McGough, Bruce - Center for Financial Studies - 2003
interest rate rule, raising the possibility of inefficient fluctuations due to the dependence of expectations on extraneous … combine forward looking expectations and predetermined variables. We consider a variety of specifications that incorporate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986495
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Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning
Evans, George W.; McGough, Bruce - Center for Financial Studies - 2003
interest rate rule, raising the possibility of inefficient fluctuations due to the dependence of expectations on extraneous … combine forward looking expectations and predetermined variables. We consider a variety of specifications that incorporate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005120769
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Household economic decisions under the shadow of terrorism
Christelis, Dimitris; Georgarakos, Dimitris - Center for Financial Studies - 2009
expectations about terrorism, and study the effects these last have on households' portfolio choices and spending patterns. We find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958603
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Escapist policy rules
Bullard, James; Cho, In-Koo - Center for Financial Studies - 2003
We study a simple, microfounded macroeconomic system in which the monetary authority employs a Taylor-type policy rule. We analyze situations in which the self-confirming equilibrium is unique and learnable according to Bullard and Mitra (2002). We explore the prospects for the use of large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986393
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The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - Center for Financial Studies - 2010
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958731
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Escapist Policy Rules
Bullard, James; Cho, In-Koo - Center for Financial Studies - 2003
We study a simple, microfounded macroeconomic system in which the monetary authority employs a Taylor-type policy rule. We analyze situations in which the self-confirming equilibrium is unique and learnable according to Bullard and Mitra (2002). We explore the prospects for the use of ‘large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022420
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The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik - Center for Financial Studies - 2010
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008504547
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How large is the housing wealth effect? A new approach
Carroll, Christopher D.; Otsuka, Misuzu; Slacalek, Jirka - Center for Financial Studies - 2006
This paper presents a simple new method for estimating the size of wealth effects on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the well-documented sluggishness of consumption growth (often interpreted as habits in the asset pricing literature) to distinguish between short-run and long-run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986368
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Retirement expectations, pension reforms, and their impact on private wealth accumulation
Bottazzi, Renata; Jappelli, Tullio; Padula, Mario - Center for Financial Studies - 2006
We estimate the effect of pension reforms on households expectations of retirement outcomes and private wealth … expectations of the age at which workers expect to retire and of the ratio of pension benefits to pre-retirement income between … 1989 and 2002. We find that workers have revised expectations in the direction suggested by the reform and that there is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986388
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Retirement Expectations, Pension Reforms, and Their Impact on Private Wealth Accumulation
Bottazzi, Renata; Jappelli, Tullio; Padula, Mario - Center for Financial Studies - 2006
We estimate the effect of pension reforms on households’ expectations of retirement outcomes and private wealth … expectations of the age at which workers expect to retire and of the ratio of pension benefits to pre-retirement income between … 1989 and 2002. We find that workers have revised expectations in the direction suggested by the reform and that there is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005138842