Mittnik, Stefan; Yener, Tina - Center for Financial Studies - 2008
Abstract. We show that the use of correlations for modeling dependencies may lead to counterintuitive behavior of risk … measures, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Short- fall (ES), when the risk of very rare events is assessed via Monte …-Carlo techniques. The phenomenon is demonstrated for mixture models adapted from credit risk analysis as well as for common Poisson …