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Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about market expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because the presence of a timevarying risk premium often renders the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958503
The substantial variation in the real price of oil since 2003 has renewed interest in the question of how to forecast monthly and quarterly oil prices. There also has been increased interest in the link between financial markets and oil markets, including the question of whether financial market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958584
Notwithstanding a resurgence in research on out-of-sample forecasts of the price of oil in recent years, there is one important approach to forecasting the real price of oil which has not been studied systematically to date. This approach is based on the premise that demand for crude oil derives...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958778
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) regularly publishes monthly and quarterly forecasts of the price of crude oil for horizons up to two years, which are widely used by practitioners. Traditionally, such out-of-sample forecasts have been largely judgmental, making them difficult to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958803
inflation and its target, and the gap between output and its potential. Under the opportunistic approach to disinflation a … central bank controls inflation aggressively when inflation is far from its target, but concentrates more on output … stabilization when inflation is close to its target, allowing supply shocks and unforeseen fluctuations in aggregate demand to move …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986427
Since 1990, a number of countries have adopted inflation targeting as their declared monetary strategy. Interpretations … of the significance of this movement, however, have differed widely. To some, inflation targeting mandates the single …-minded, rule-like pursuit of price stability without regard for other policy objectives; to others, inflation targeting represents …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958508
Inflation-targeting central banks have only imperfect knowledge about the effect of policy decisions on inflation. An … important source of uncertainty is the relationship between inflation and unemployment. This paper studies the optimal monetary … policy in the presence of uncertainty about the natural unemployment rate, the short-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958781
Inflation-targeting central banks have only imperfect knowledge about the effect of policy decisions on inflation. An … important source of uncertainty is the relationship between inflation and unemployment. This paper studies the optimal monetary … policy in the presence of uncertainty about the natural unemployment rate, the short-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022415
disinflation under inflation targeting policies. The analysis is motivated by the disinflation performance of many inflation … episode price-setting firms’ expect inflation to be highly persistent and opt for backward-looking indexation. As the central … bank acts to bring inflation under control, price-setting firms revise their estimates of the degree of persistence. Such …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005007625
inflation and its target, and the gap between output and its potential. Under “the opportunistic approach to disinflation” a … central bank controls inflation aggressively when inflation is far from its target, but concentrates more on output … stabilization when inflation is close to its target, allowing supply shocks and unforeseen fluctuations in aggregate demand to move …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005600442