Using density forecasts, we compare the predictive performance of duration models that have been developed for modelling intra-day data on stock markets. Our model portfolio encompasses the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, its logarithmic version (Log-ACD), the threshold ACD...

A new model for the analysis of durations, the stochastic conditional duration (SCD) model, is introduced. This model is based of the assumption that the durations are generated by a latent stochastic factor that follows a first order autoregressive process. The latent factor is pertubed...

This article deals with the estimation of the parameters of an -stable distribution by the indirect inference method with the skewed-t distribution as an auxiliary model. The latter distribution appears as a good candidate for an auxiliary model since it has the same number of parameters as the...

This paper studies the importance of different pieces of limit order book information in characterizing order aggressiveness and the timing of trades, order submissions and cancellations. Using limit order book information on a representative sample of Spanish stocks, we evidence that most of...

We develop a methodology for using intra-annual data to forecast annual budget deficits. Our approach aims at improving the accuracy of the deficit forecasts, a relevant issue to policy makers in the Eurozone and at proposing a replicable methodology using at best public quantitative information...