This paper proposes a new kind of asymmetric GARCH where the conditional variance obeys two different regimes with a smooth transition function. In one formulation, the conditional variance reacts differently to negative and positive shocks while in a second formulation, small and big shocks...

This paper proposes a new kind of asymmetric GARCh where the conditional variance obeys two different regimes with a smooth transition function. In one formulation, the conditional variance reacts differently to negative and positive shocks while in a second formulation, small and big shocks...

We present an algorithm, based on a differential evolution MCMC method, for Bayesian inference in AR-GARCH models subject to an unknown number of structural breaks at unknown dates. Break dates are directly treated as parameters and the number of breaks is determined by the marginal likelihood...

Benchmarking methods, and in particular Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), have become well-established and informative tools for economic regulation. DEA is now routinely used by European regulators to set reasonable revenue caps for energy transmission and distribution system operators. The...

We consider a nonlinear vector model called the logistic vector smooth transition autoregressive model. The bivariate single-transition vector smooth transition regression model of Camacho (2004) is generalised to a multivariate and multitransition one. A modelling strategy consisting of...

We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differ in their...

An important class of structural econometric models (nonlinear rational expectations,option pricing, auction models,...) characterize observable variables as highly nonlinear transformations of some latent variables. These transformations are one-to-one but they depend on the unknown...

In this paper, we survey some of the recent nonparapmetric estimation methods which were developed to price derivative contracts. We focus on equity options and staart with a so-called model-free approach which involves very little financial theory. Next we discuss nonparametric and...

In a framework of preferences over lotteries, we show that an axiom system consisting of weakened versions of Arrow's axioms has a unique solution. "Relative Utilitarianism" consists of first normalising individual von Neumann-Morgenstern utilities between 0 and 1 and then summing them. This...

A large number of parameterizations have been proposed to model conditional variance dynamics in a multivariate framework. This paper examines the ranking of multivariate volatility models in terms of their ability to forecast out-of-sample conditional variance matrices. We investigate how...