In this paper, we modify the model of Benhabib and Laroque in which the behaviour of non steady-state equilibria in the neighborhood of the goldenrule steady-state are studied, to include liquidity constraints. We observe in an example, the appearance of new cycles.

This paper builds on a simple unified representation of shrinkage Bayes estimators based on hierarchical Normal-Gamma priors. Various popular penalized least squares estimators for shrinkage and selection in regression models can be recovered using this single hierarchical Bayes formulation....

This paper develops methods for automatic selection of variables in Bayesian vector autoregressions (VARs) using the Gibbs sampler. In particular, I provide computationally efficient algorithms for stochastic variable selection in generic linear and nonlinear models, as well as models of large...

This paper provides evidence of the positive impact of economic integration on EU regions' business cycles convergence by focusing on two neighbouring countries: Spain and Portugal. We show that while a rise in cross-country business cycle correlation has also been experienced by other European...

We develop in this paper simple geometrical methods to study local indeterminancy; bifurcations and stochastic (sunspot) equilibria near a steady state, in nonlinear two dimensional economic models. We present stochastic sunspot equilibria, which allows a constructive description of local...

In a dynamic general equilibrium setup, this paper highlights the role of vintages and creative destruction in business fluctuations. By stressing the forward-looking characteristic of the optimal scrapping rule, we use a standard rational expectations argument to show the constancy of the...

This paper attempts to identify, in a framework deliberately stripped of unnecessary technicalities, some of the basic reasons why adaptative learning may or may not lead to stability and convergence to self-fulfilling expectations in large socioeconomic systems where no agent, or collection of...

In this paper, we forecast EU-area inflation with many predictors using time-varying parameter models. The facts that time-varying parameter models are parameter-rich and the time span of our data is relatively short motivate a desire for shrinkage. In constant coefficient regression models, the...

This paper addresses the question of the selection of multivariate GARCH models in terms of variance matrix forecasting accuracy with a particular focus on relatively large scale problems. We consider 10 assets from NYSE and NASDAQ and compare 125 model based one-step-ahead conditional variance...

We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differ in their...