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framework. This paper examines the ranking of multivariate volatility models in terms of their ability to forecast out … evaluate the distance between the true covariance matrix and its forecast. The evaluation of multivariate volatility models … requires the use of a proxy for the unobservable volatility matrix which may shift the ranking of the models. Therefore, to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008550212
The maximum likelihood estimation of dynamic demand models has usually been based on the likelihood function conditional on the first observations of the dependent variables. However, this neglects information which may be necessary for identifying the long-run structure. We formulate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005043255
We consider a nonlinear vector model called the logistic vector smooth transition autoregressive model. The bivariate single-transition vector smooth transition regression model of Camacho (2004) is generalised to a multivariate and multitransition one. A modelling strategy consisting of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011246311
This paper addresses the question of the selection of multivariate GARCH models in terms of variance matrix forecasting accuracy with a particular focus on relatively large scale problems. We consider 10 assets from NYSE and NASDAQ and compare 125 model based one-step-ahead conditional variance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008642224
We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010610494
model returns and volatility dynamics of this price showing that a standard ARMA-GARCH framework is not adequate and that … the gaussianity assumption is rejected due to the occurrence of a number of level and volatility outliers. To improve the … sharp increases in volume increase volatility even in the absence of changes in what recent literature considers as market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008494369
illustrates the importance of considering the commodity inventory effect (effect by which the commodity price volatility increases …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010927672
/Dollar return volatility. We highlight and analyze the pre-announcement, contemporaneous and postannouncement reactions. Using high …-frequency intraday data and within the framework of ARCH-type and realized volatility models, we show that volatility increases in the … volatility as expected by the theoretical literature on order flow. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005065447
estimates of volatility, we present an application dealing with Value-at-Risk (VaR) prediction at different sampling frequencies … factor in the portfolio volatility equation from the estimated vector IMA(1,1) model of squared returns. Empirical results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008642228
Chapter written for the Handbook of Volatility Models and their Applications, edited by Luc Bauwens, Christian Hafner …, and Sébastien Laurent, forthcoming in 2012 (John Wiley & sons). This chapter presents an introductory review of volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010927710