We consider a nonlinear vector model called the logistic vector smooth transition autoregressive model. The bivariate single-transition vector smooth transition regression model of Camacho (2004) is generalised to a multivariate and multitransition one. A modelling strategy consisting of...

We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differ in their...

A large number of parameterizations have been proposed to model conditional variance dynamics in a multivariate framework. This paper examines the ranking of multivariate volatility models in terms of their ability to forecast out-of-sample conditional variance matrices. We investigate how...

In this paper we study the short term price behavior of December 2008 future prices for EU emission allowances. We model returns and volatility dynamics of this price showing that a standard ARMA-GARCH framework is not adequate and that the gaussianity assumption is rejected due to the...

This paper addresses the question of the selection of multivariate GARCH models in terms of variance matrix forecasting accuracy with a particular focus on relatively large scale problems. We consider 10 assets from NYSE and NASDAQ and compare 125 model based one-step-ahead conditional variance...

Benchmarking methods, and in particular Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), have become well-established and informative tools for economic regulation. DEA is now routinely used by European regulators to set reasonable revenue caps for energy transmission and distribution system operators. The...

An important class of structural econometric models (nonlinear rational expectations,option pricing, auction models,...) characterize observable variables as highly nonlinear transformations of some latent variables. These transformations are one-to-one but they depend on the unknown...

In this paper, we survey some of the recent nonparapmetric estimation methods which were developed to price derivative contracts. We focus on equity options and staart with a so-called model-free approach which involves very little financial theory. Next we discuss nonparametric and...

In a framework of preferences over lotteries, we show that an axiom system consisting of weakened versions of Arrow's axioms has a unique solution. "Relative Utilitarianism" consists of first normalising individual von Neumann-Morgenstern utilities between 0 and 1 and then summing them. This...

Nowcasting regards the inference on the present realization of random variables, on the basis of information available until a recent past. This paper proposes a modelling strategy aimed at a best use of the data for nowcasting based on panel data with severe deficiencies, namely short times...