A dynamic latent factor model of stock market returns is estimated using simulation-based techniques. Stock market volatility is decomposed into common and idiosyncratic components, and volatility decompositions are compared between stable and turmoil periods to test for possible shift-contagion...

Tests for contagion in financial returns using correlation analysis are seriously affected by the size of the “noncrisis” and “crisis” periods. Typically the crisis period contains relatively few observations, which seriously affects the power of the test.

Tests for contagion in financial returns using correlation analysis are seriously affected by the size of the “noncrisis” and “crisis” periods. Typically the crisis period contains relatively few observations, which seriously affects the power of the test.

A dynamic latent factor model of stock market returns is estimated using simulation-based techniques. Stock market volatility is decomposed into common and idiosyncratic components, and volatility decompositions are compared between stable and turmoil periods to test for possible shift-contagion...