We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale underlying the capacity constraint theory (Macklem...

Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below target thereafter. This paper employs a Bayesian VAR to quantify the contribution of a set of structural shocks, identified by means of sign restrictions, to inflation and economic...

The paper studies how a prolonged period of subdued price developments may induce a de-anchoring of inflation expectations from the central bank's objective. This is shown within a framework where agents form expectations using adaptive learning, choosing among a set of alternative forecasting...

We analyze the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area during the post-crisis period, with a focus on the time span from 2014 onwards when long-term beliefs have substantially drifted away from the policy target. Using a new estimation technique, we look at tail...

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We exploit the panel dimension in this dataset to examine whether this distribution became less stable following the Great...

Several authors have documented a reduced variability ofoutput and inflation in the United States since the beginningof the 1980s.1 In fact, a comparison of the 1980:1-2001:2 periodwith the two preceding decades shows that the standarddeviation of quarterly output growth has fallen 30...

The volatility of real GDP growth in the United States hasfallen by half since the early 1980s relative to the priorpostwar experience.1 Inflation also stabilized around then(although only when compared with a shorter period ofvolatility in the 1970s). Some studies have argued that animprovement...

[...]This article provides a systematic evaluation of severalproposed measures of U.S. core inflation: the popular ex foodand energy series, an ex energy series, a weighted median series,and an exponentially smoothed series. To inform the currentdebate on this issue, we adopt a general framework...

In this chapter, Don Drummond makes the case that with large deficits there was little room for the Bank of Canada to reduce interest rates to stimulate the economy and generate revenues. It was imperative that the deficit be eliminated. Tax rates were already high so the government had no...

In this chapter, Pierre Fortin provides a critique of the conduct of Canadian monetary policy in the 1990s, a critique that he developed throughout the decade. While not denying that the US economic slowdown in the early 1990s reduced growth in Canada, Fortin lays the blame for the inferior...