Models of inflation usually have monetary policy impacting the economy through either an interest rate or a monetary/credit quantity channel but not through both. We argue that policy is transmitted via two distinct types of agents – those that are and that are not liquidity constrained. The...

The influence of commodity prices on consumer prices is usually seen as originating in commodity markets. We argue, however, that long run and short run relationships should exist between commodity prices, consumer prices and money and that the influence of commodity prices on consumer prices...

The Central Bank of Ireland and SUERF organised a joint conference in Dublin on 20th September, 2010 on the general theme of Regulation and Banking after the Crisis. In the best traditions of SUERF, the programme included papers and presentations from the three main constituencies of SUERF:...

This paper employs the user cost of capital to examine Irish house price movements. The bundle of services afforded by a dwelling can be accessed either by renting the dwelling or by outright purchase. Between 2002 and 2007, a combination of factors including rapid house price appreciation and...

This paper employs a consumption-based capital asset pricing model to derive the generalised Fisher equation, in order to estimate the natural rate of interest and corresponding real interest rate spread for the US. Analysis reveals not only is the estimated real interest rate spread a useful...

Developments in broad money since the start of the new millennium cannot be explained by the traditional determinants of money demand, namely, income, prices and portfolio effects. Households’ direct and indirect participation in financial markets have led to the widespread democratisation of...

This paper sets out a methodology for constructing fan charts for the government deficit and debt ratios over the medium-term. It relies on information contained in Stability/Convergence Programme Updates, a model of the relevant stochastic process (for example, the real GDP process) or...

This paper applies the Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012) methodology to assess spillovers in euro area sovereign bond markets. Our analysis identifies a number of phases of interaction in those markets in recent years. We find a substantial increase in spillover between euro area sovereign bond...

The most popular method of measuring structural budget balances is the “gaps plus elasticities” approach. Abtract: In this paper, it is argued that the idiosyncratic features of an economy need to be accounted for properly when seeking to achieve good estimates of structural budget balances...