Building on the work of Sorge and Virolainen (2006), we revisit the data on aggregate Finnish bank loan losses from the corporate sector, which covers the ‘Big Five’ crisis in Finland in the early 1990s. Several extensions to the empirical model are considered. These extensions are then used...

Operational risk management and measurement has been paid an increasing attention in last years. The main two reasons are the Basel II requirements that were to be complied with by all international active financial institutions by the end of 2006 and recent severe operational risk loss events....

In this paper we review the actual operational data of an anonymous Central European Bank, using two approaches described in the literature: the loss distribution approach and the extreme value theory (“EVT”). Within the EVT analysis, two estimation methods were applied; the standard maximum...

The purpose of this paper is to examine Austrian foreign trade and estimate the country’s export function. The analysis is based on the gravity model of trade in the log-log form, augmented by additional variables in order to control for the impact of institutions on decision-making. Our panel...

We suggest a complementary tool for financial stability analysis based on stochastic simulation of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) of the macro economy. The paper relates to financial stability research in which financial aggregates crucial to financial stability are...

This paper focuses on how to calibrate models used to stress test the most important risks in the banking system. Based on the results of a verification of the Czech National Bank’s stress testing methodology, the paper argues that stress tests should be calibrated conservatively and slightly...

This paper introduces a model for stress testing of probability of default of individuals. The model rests on assumption that the individual defaults if his savings fall below zero. The probability of default is then described as a function of several macroeconomic indicators such as wages,...

The stress testing literature abounds with reduced-form macroeconomic models that are used to forecast the evolution of the macroeconomic environment in the context of a stress testing exercise. These models permit supervisors to estimate counterparty risk under both baseline and adverse...

Foreign-dominated banking sectors, such as those prevalent in Central and Eastern Europe, are susceptible to two major sources of systemic risk: (i) linkages between local banks, and (ii) linkages between a foreign par- ent bank and its local subsidiary. Using a nonparametric method based on...

The recent financial crisis emphasised the need for effective financial stability analyses and tools for detecting systemic risk. This paper looks at assessment of banking sector resilience through stress testing. We argue such analyses are valuable even in emerging economies that suffer from...