In this article we study the interaction between leading macroeconomic indicators (industrial production, stock prices, consumer sentiment and real interest rates) and financial sector leverage in major European countries. We base our analysis on monthly, country-aggregated panel VAR models for...

The purpose of this paper is to examine Austrian foreign trade and estimate the country’s export function. The analysis is based on the gravity model of trade in the log-log form, augmented by additional variables in order to control for the impact of institutions on decision-making. Our panel...

The recent financial crisis emphasised the need for effective financial stability analyses and tools for detecting systemic risk. This paper looks at assessment of banking sector resilience through stress testing. We argue such analyses are valuable even in emerging economies that suffer from...

We use data on loan loss provisions and total loans over the period spanning 1995 until 2009 to estimate a stress testing model for the Luxembourg banking sector. The sample encompasses the recent global crisis and covers a period in which the average probability of default of the Luxembourg...

In this article we investigate the leverage cycle in Luxembourg?s banking sector using individual bank-level data for the period 2003 Q1 to 2010 Q1. We discuss the mechanics behind the leverage cycle in Luxembourg?s banks and show that these banks predominantly adjust leverage by changing both...

The stress testing literature abounds with reduced-form macroeconomic models that are used to forecast the evolution of the macroeconomic environment in the context of a stress testing exercise. These models permit supervisors to estimate counterparty risk under both baseline and adverse...

This paper introduces a model for stress testing of probability of default of individuals. The model rests on assumption that the individual defaults if his savings fall below zero. The probability of default is then described as a function of several macroeconomic indicators such as wages,...

This paper focuses on how to calibrate models used to stress test the most important risks in the banking system. Based on the results of a verification of the Czech National Bank’s stress testing methodology, the paper argues that stress tests should be calibrated conservatively and slightly...

This article presents the results of stress tests of the Czech banking sector conducted using models of credit risk and credit growth broken down by sector. The use of these models enables the stress tests to be linked to the CNB’s official quarterly macroeconomic forecast. In addition, the...