We discuss linear regression approaches to conditional Value-at-Risk and Average Value-at-Risk (Conditional Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall) risk measures. Two estimation procedures are considered for each conditional risk measure, one is direct and the other is based on residual analysis of...

An important aspect of portfolio risk management is the analysis of the overall risk with respect to the allocations to the underlying assets. Marginal risk is the traditional tool used by portfolio managers to accomplish this. However, this metric is only meaningful when a position is levered...

Expected Shortfall (ES) has been widely accepted as a risk measure that is conceptually superior to Value-at-Risk (VaR). At the same time, however, it has been criticized for issues relating to backtesting. In particular, ES has been found not to be elicitable which means that backtesting for ES...

This paper evaluates the model risk of models used for forecasting systemic and market risk. Model risk, which is the potential for different models to provide inconsistent outcomes, is shown to be increasing with and caused by market uncertainty. During calm periods, the underlying risk...

Risk diversification is the basis of insurance and investment. It is thus crucial to study the effects that could limit it. One of them is the existence of systemic risk that affects all the policies at the same time. We introduce here a probabilistic approach to examine the consequences of its...

The Operational Risk Advanced Measurement Approach requires financial institutions to use scenarios to model these risks and to evaluate the pertaining capital charges. Considering that a banking group is composed of numerous entities (branches and subsidiaries), and that each one of them is...

Using a new dataset of bid and offer quotes for credit default swaps, we investigate the relationship between theoretical determinants of default risk and actual market premia using linear regression. These theoretical determinants are firm leverage, volatility and the riskless interest rate. We...

Using a new dataset of bid and offer quotes for credit default swaps, we investigate the relationship between theoretical determinants of default risk and actual market premia using cross sectional regressions. These theoretical determinants are variance risk premia, implied volatility and the...

Through a long-period analysis of the inter-temporal relations between the French markets for credit default swaps (CDS), shares and bonds between 2001 and 2008, this article shows how a financial innovation like CDS could heighten financial instability. After describing the operating principles...