This paper was prepared for the meeting of the Panel on International Capital Transactions of the National Research Council (National Academy of Sciences), April 23, 1992. There are well-documented inadequacies in the data on U.S. international capital flows, cross-border holdings of assets, and...

In this text, we review recent developments in econometrics from the viewpoint of statistical test theory. We first review some basic principles of philosophy of science and statistical theory, emphasizing parsimony and falsifiability as criteria for evaluating models, test theory as a...

We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985. Five procedures were identified: revising judgment; combining forecasts; revising...