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We discuss specification, frequency domain estimation and application of flexible fractionally integrated seasonal long memory time series models, which allow for 'chi-squared' (seasonal) unit root testing. We suggest periodogram regression and approximate ML estimation. We successfully apply a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972223
-Theory- Two theories about trends in left-right political orientations are juxtaposed: the persistence theory claiming that left-right orientations are highly resistant to change versus the irrelevance theory anticipating a move of mass publics towards the center of the left-right continuum....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972274
This paper describes a parameter estimation method for both stationary and non-stationary ARFIMA (p,d,q) models, based on autoregressive approximation. We demonstrate consistency of the estimator for -1/2 d 1, and in the stationary case we provide a Normal approximation to the finite-sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100960
Two important empirical features of monthly US unemployment are that shocks to the series seem rather persistent and that unemployment seems to rise faster in recessions than that it falls during expansions. To jointly capture these features of long memory and nonlinearity, respectively, we put...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005505011
, coffee, cotton, orange juice, Kansas City wheat, rubber, and palm oil. The class of fractional GARCH models, namely the … FIGARCH model of Baillie et al. (1996), FIEGACH model of Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996), and FIAPARCH model of Tse (1998 …), are modelled and compared with the GARCH model of Bollerslev (1986), EGARCH model of Nelson (1991), and APARCH model of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008570627
Time series data affect many aspects of our lives. This paper highlights ten things we should all know about time series, namely: a good working knowledge of econometrics and statistics, an awareness of measurement errors, testing for zero frequency, seasonal and periodic unit roots, analysing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008484072
Conditional returns distributions generated by a GARCH process, which are important for many problems in market risk … moments of GARCH returns distributions in several ways: we consider a general GARCH model – the GJR specification with a … specific GARCH models largely used in practice are recovered as special cases; we derive the limits of these moments as the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010838036
produced by GARCH-based models are excessive. Therefore we encourage hedgers to use a na ¨ive hedging strategy on the crack … majority of the existing literature, which favours the implementation of GARCH-based hedging strategies. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010838053
We quantify and endogenize the model risk associated with quantile estimates using a maximum entropy distribution (MED) as benchmark. Moment-based MEDs cannot have heavy tails, however generalized beta generated distributions have attractive properties for popular applications of quantiles....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010838057
GARCH option pricing models have the advantage of a well-established econometric foundation. However, multiple states … need to be introduced as single state GARCH and even Levy processes are unable to explain the term structure of the moments … of financial data. We show that the continuous time version of the Markov switching GARCH(1,1) process is a stochastic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008542351