This paper evaluates the model risk of models used for forecasting systemic and market risk. Model risk, which is the potential for different models to provide inconsistent outcomes, is shown to be increasing with and caused by market uncertainty. During calm periods, the underlying risk...

Epidemics are often modeled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions, seasonal effects, etc.). These models assign diffusion...

Banks operating under Value-at-Risk constraints give rise to a welldefined aggregate balance sheet capacity for the banking sector as a whole that depends on total bank capital. Equilibrium risk and market risk premiums can be solved in closed form as functions of aggregate bank capital. We...

We introduce an asset-allocation framework based on the active control of the value-at- risk of the portfolio. Within this framework, we compare two paradigms for making the allocation using neural networks. The first one uses the network to make a forecast of asset behavior, in conjunction with...

Many financial applications, such as risk analysis and derivatives pricing, depend on time scaling of risk. A common method for this purpose, though only correct when returns are iid normal, is the square–root–of–time rule where an estimated quantile of a return distribution is scaled to a...

We provide a model that links an asset's market liquidity; i.e., the ease with which it is traded; and traders' funding liquidity, i.e. the ease with which they can obtain funding. Traders provide market liquidity, and their ability to do so depends on their availability of funding. Conversely,...

We provide an equilibrium multi-asset pricing model with micro-founded systemic risk and heterogeneous investors. Systemic risk arises due to excessive leverage and risk taking induced by free-riding externalities. Global risk-sensitive financial regulations are introduced with a view of...

Most financial risk regulations assume that asset returns are exogenous, where risk is estimated from historical data. This assumption fails to take into account the feedback effect of trading decisions on prices. We investigate the consequences of risk constrained trading by means of...