interesting feature of such forecasts is their calibration, or the match between predicted probabilities and actual outcome … probabilities. Calibration has been evaluated in the past by grouping probability forecasts into discrete categories. Here we show … calibration error in a number of economic applications including recession and inflation prediction, using both forecasts made and …

target inflation rate and 2.5% respectively.) Unlike earlier work on these forecasts, we measure both their calibration and … prévisions, nous gaugeons leur calibration aussi bien que leur résolution, en donnant des tests formels et des interprétations …

Time series are demeaned when sample autocorrelation functions are computed. By the same logic it would seem appealing … to remove seasonal means from seasonal time series before computing sample autocorrelation functions. Yet, standard … series are seasonally demeaned has very important consequences on the asymptotic behavior of autocorrelation functions …