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Characterizing asset return dynamics using volatility models is an important part of empirical finance. The existing literature favors some rather complex volatility specifications whose relative performance is usually assessed through their likelihood based on a time-series of asset returns....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100917
We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differ in their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009652126
to forecast. This paper considers the application of diffusion index forecasting models to this problem. We begin by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100998
model-free methods of volatility forecasting do not exist any more than do arbitrage opportunities (free lunches) in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100999
This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the … forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008805568
We provide results for the valuation of European style contingent claims for a large class of specifications of the underlying asset returns. Our valuation results obtain in a discrete time, infinite state-space setup using the no-arbitrage principle and an equivalent martingale measure. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004976982
Equity risk measured by beta is of great interest to both academics and practitioners. Existing estimates of beta use historical returns. Many studies have found option-implied volatility to be a strong predictor of future realized volatility. We .nd that option-implied volatility and skewness...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004976983
Standard empirical investigations of jump dynamics in returns and volatility are fairly complicated due to the presence of latent continuous-time factors. We present a new discrete-time framework that combines heteroskedastic processes with rich specifications of jumps in returns and volatility....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004976985
Many continuous time term structure of interest rate models assume a factor structure where the drift and volatility functions are affine functions of the state variable process. These models involve very specific parametric choices of factors and functional specifications of the drift and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100561
Understanding the dynamics of interest rates and the term structure has important implications for issues as diverse as real economic activity, monetary policy, pricing of interest rate derivative securities and public debt financing. Our paper follows a longstanding tradition of using factor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100562