This study considers the time series behavior of the U.S. real interest rate from 1961 to 1986. We provide a statistical characterization of the series using the methodology of Hamilton (1989), by allowing three possible regimes affecting both the mean and variance of the series. The results...

We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses...

We discuss statistical inference problems associated with identification and testability in econometrics, and we emphasize the common nature of the two issues. After reviewing the relevant statistical notions, we consider in turn inference in nonparametric models and recent developments on...

In this text, we review recent developments in econometrics from the viewpoint of statistical test theory. We first review some basic principles of philosophy of science and statistical theory, emphasizing parsimony and falsifiability as criteria for evaluating models, test theory as a...

This paper investigates the importance of idiosyncratic consumption risk for the cross-sectional variation in average returns on stocks and bonds. If idiosyncratic consumption risk is not priced, the only pricing factor in a multiperiod economy is the rate of aggregate consumption growth. We...

This paper estimates the rate of relative risk aversion using Euler equations based on household-level consumption data. These Euler equations are implications of market structures that do not necessarily allow agents to perfectly insure themselves. The paper focuses on tests of the...