interesting feature of such forecasts is their calibration, or the match between predicted probabilities and actual outcome … probabilities. Calibration has been evaluated in the past by grouping probability forecasts into discrete categories. Here we show … calibration error in a number of economic applications including recession and inflation prediction, using both forecasts made and …

target inflation rate and 2.5% respectively.) Unlike earlier work on these forecasts, we measure both their calibration and … prévisions, nous gaugeons leur calibration aussi bien que leur résolution, en donnant des tests formels et des interprétations …

Time series are demeaned when sample autocorrelation functions are computed. By the same logic it would seem appealing … to remove seasonal means from seasonal time series before computing sample autocorrelation functions. Yet, standard … series are seasonally demeaned has very important consequences on the asymptotic behavior of autocorrelation functions …

coefficients d'autocorrélation : bornes exponen-tielles, bornes de type Eaton, bornes de Chebyshev et bornes de Berry … la performance des bornes et comparons celle-ci à celle de tests d'autocorrélation traditionnels. Les procédures …