Showing 1 - 10 of 32
former case providing consistency and asymptotic normality in some cases where moments of the volatility estimation error may …-frequency) returns data to estimate the daily conditional volatility.Two potential bases for estimation are considered. One uses … integrated volatility of Andersen and Bollerslev (1998), and obtains coefficients from a model estimated by LAD or OLS, in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100771
Historical and sequential CUSUM change-point tests for strongly dependent nonlinear processes are studied. These tests are used to monitor the conditional variance of asset returns and to provide early information regarding instabilities or disruptions in financial risk. Data-driven monitoring...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100955
Stochastic volatility models, aka SVOL, are more difficult to estimate than standard time-varying volatility models … volatility forecasts especially around crucial periods of high volatility. We extend the basic SVOL needs to allow for the … model diagnostics, such as the identification of outliers for stochastic volatility models or the assessment of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100719
In this paper, we provide both qualitative and quantitative measures of the cost of measuring the integrated volatility … by the realized volatility when the frequency of observation is fixed. We start by characterizing for a general diffusion … compute the mean and variance of this noise and the correlation between the noise and the integrated volatility in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100997
data to test for nonlinear leverage versus volatility feedback effects and to test for causality between stock returns and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005101068
after filtering jumps through the bispectrum) and implied volatilities. Using only returns and realized volatility, we find … leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and … implied volatility, and find that implied volatilities are essential for assessing the volatility feedback effect. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008855592
Several recent papers have underlined the importance of the microstructure effects in understanding exchange rate … macroeconomic models and is consistent with the prediction of micro-structure models. We reexamine the evidence for stable long … statistically fragile. We conclude that this implication of microstructure models does not fit the data as well as previous studies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100932
that it generalizes standard stochastic volatility models by allowing for "jumps"" and other fat-tailed negative movements … two interesting continuous-time limits. One limit is the standard stochastic volatility model of Heston (1993). The other … in stock returns. The empirical results therefore also demonstrate the importance of jumps for the pricing of out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005101071
Realized variance can be broken down into continuous volatility and jumps. We show that these two components have very … different predictive powers on future long-term excess stock market returns. While continuous volatility is a key driver of … medium to long-term risk-return relationships, jumps do not predict future medium- to long-term excess returns. We use …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011183687
null hypothesis are derived, and consistency is established against fixed alternatives of serial cross-correlation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008855594