Connor and Lande (2006) conducted a survey of cartel overcharge estimates and found an average in the range of 31% to 49%. By examining more sources, Connor (2010b) finds a median of 23.3% for all type of cartels and a mean of 50.4% for successful cartels. However, the data used in these studies...

The determination of optimal fines to deter the formation or continuation of cartels is a major objective of competition policy. We provide an analysis of static and dynamic frameworks to characterize the restitution and deterrence properties of fines: cartel stability depends on their ability...

The estimation of cartel overcharges lie at the heart of antitrust policy on cartel proscution as it constitutes a basic element in the determination of fines. Connor and Lande (2008) conducted a survey of cartels and found a mean overcharge estimates in the range of 31% to 49%. By examining...

The method of moments proposed by Carrasco and Florens (2000) permits to fully exploit the information contained in the characteristic function and yields an estimator which is asymptotically as efficient as the maximum likelihood estimator. However, this estimation procedure depends on a...

Deterring the formation or continuation of cartels is a major objective of antitrust policy. We develop a dynamic framework to characterize the compensation and deterrence properties of fines, based on the fact that cartel stability depends on the ability to prevent deviation, which itself...

This paper advances beyond the prediction of the probability of a recession by also considering its severity in terms of output loss and duration. First, Probit models are used to estimate the probability of a recession at period t + h from the information available at period t. Next, a Vector...

We design adaptive realized kernels to estimate the integrated volatility in a framework that combines a stochastic volatility model with leverage effect for the efficient price and a semiparametric microstructure noise model specified at the highest frequency. Some time dependence parameters of...