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theory assumes that return shocks can be caused by changes in conditional volatility through a time-varying risk premium. On … leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and … implied volatility, and find that implied volatilities are essential for assessing the volatility feedback effect. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008855592
volatility measures, and the VaRs are tested and compared. La valeur exposée au risque (value at risk - VaR) est devenue un outil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100810
leverage, volatility and the riskless interest rate. We find that estimated coefficients for these variables are consistent … with theory and that the estimates are highly significant both statistically and economically. The explanatory power of the … premia is approximately 23%. Volatility and leverage by themselves also have substantial explanatory power for credit default …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100839
The federal government announced in its 2012 budget its intention to delay the age of eligibility for Old Age Security and the Guaranteed Income Supplement from 65 to 67 years. By the time the policy is fully implemented (i.e., in 2030), this delay will have increased net revenues of the federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011205325
revisions across different series. This ignores (i) the possibility that early releases of some series may help forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011183682
A well-documented property of the Beveridge-Nelson trend-cycle decomposition is the perfect negative correlation between trend and cycle innovations. We show how this may be consistent with a structural model where trend shocks enter the cycle, or cycle shocks enter the trend and that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011183769
; the point estimates suggest reductions in forecast loss at some nowcast horizons, but with considerable variability. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011184507
In this paper we propose a generic procedure for estimating and pricing options in the context of stochastic volatility … remarkably simple volatility extraction filter based on a polynomial lag structure of implied volatilities. The bivariate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100549
The purpose of this paper is to propose a new class of jump diffusions which feature both stochastic volatility and …-normal jumps or constant jump intensity combined with a one factor stochastic volatility model. We introduce several … intensity jump processes which feature correlation between the stochastic volatility and jump component. We also allow for and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100581
In this paper, we study the asymptotic distribution of a simple two-stage (Hannan-Rissanen-type) linear estimator for stationary invertible vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models in the echelon form representation. General conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100706