This paper tackles the prediction of the probability and severity of US recessions. We employ parsimonious Probit models to estimate the probability of a recession h periods ahead, for h varying between 1 and 8 quarters. A novel goodness-of-fit measure derived from the Kullback-Leibler...

During the transition toward a market economy, Russian workers have had to face important structural changes in the labour market as well as dramatic changes in their real earnings. In the process, the wage gap between men and women has varied wildly over that period. In recent years, young...

The literature on structural breaks focuses on ex post identification of break points that may have occurred in the past. While this question is important, a more challenging problem facing econometricians is to provide forecasts when the data generating process is unstable. The purpose of this...

We show that the composition of international trade has important implications for the optimal volatility of the exchange rate, above and beyond the size of trade flows. Using an analytically tractable small open economy model, we characterize the impact of the trade composition on the policy...

This paper proposes a new nonparametric test for conditional independence, which is based on the comparison of Bernstein copula densities using the Hellinger distance. The test is easy to implement because it does not involve a weighting function in the test statistic, and it can be applied in...

In this paper, we study the macroeconomic implications of sectoral heterogeneity and, in particular, heterogeneity in price setting, through the lens of a highly disaggregated multi-sector model. The model incorporates several realistic features and is estimated using a mix of aggregate and...

In many developing and emerging market economies, governments intervene to limit the degree to which oil-price increases are passed through to domestic fuel prices. This paper investigates whether, and to what extent, this intervention is warranted in an oil-importing economy characterized by...

Models of the microfoundations of nominal price rigidities show that in the absence of real rigidities, individual firms have strong incentives to adjust prices even if other firms do not: price rigidity is not a Nash equilibrium unless the fixed cost of adjusting prices is implausibly high....

We consider situations where legal liability yields insufficient incentives for socially efficient behavior, e.g., individuals who cause harm are not always sued or are unable to pay fully for harm done. Some individuals nevertheless behave efficiently because of intrinsic prosocial concerns....

This paper investigates how firms design the maturity of their hedging programs, and the real effects of maturity choice on firm value and risk. Using a new dataset on hedging activities of 150 U.S. oil and gas producers, we find strong evidence that hedging maturity is influenced by investment...