In this paper, we propose a flexible tool to estimate the risk sensitivity of a high-dimensional portfolio composed of different classes of assets, especially in extreme risk circumstances. We build a so-called Cvine Risk Factors Model (CRFM), which is a non-linear version of a risk factor model...

Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is a technique that provides approximate solutions to a broad range of mathematical problems. A drawback of the method is its high computational cost, especially in a high-dimensional setting. Estimating the Tail Value-at-Risk for large portfolios or pricing basket...

The ultimate goal of risk management is the generation of efficient incomes. The objective is to generate the maximum return for a unit of risk taken or to minimise the risk taken to generate the return expected i.e. it is the optimisation of a financial institution strategy. Therefore, by...

The forecasting literature has identified three important and broad issues: the predictive content is unstable over time, in-sample and out-of-sample discordant results and the problematic statistical inference with highly persistent predictors. In this paper, we simultaneously address these...

In this paper, we propose an alternative approach to estimate long-term risk. Instead of using the static square root method, we use a dynamic approach based on volatility forecasting by non-linear models. We explore the possibility of improving the estimations by different models and...

This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate price-earning ratio at different time-scales, for predicting stock returns and exploring the channels through which returns are forecasted. Using U.S. quartely data, we find that cycles in the price-earning ratio are strong and better...

Value and growth investment styles are a concept which has gained extreme popularity over the past two decades, probably due to its practical efficiency and relative simplicity. We study the mechanics of different factors' impact on excess returns in a multivariate setting. We use a panel of...

The LP formula is based upon the substitution of the exogenous risk aversion hypothesis by a credit equilibrium hypothesis. This leads to a trade-off between expected blue-sky return – the expected return excluding default scenarios – and extreme risk estimated from scenarios leading to...

The 2007 subprime crisis has induced a persistent disconnection between the Libor derivative markets of different tenors and the OIS market. Commonly proposed explanations for the corresponding spreads are a combination of credit risk and liquidity risk. However in the literature the meaning of...

This paper studies the switching of trading strategies and its effect on the market volatility in a continuous double auction market. We describe the behavior when some uninformed agents, who we call switchers, decide whether or not to pay for information before they trade. By paying for the...