This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate price-earning ratio at different time-scales, for predicting stock returns and exploring the channels through which returns are forecasted. Using U.S. quartely data, we find that cycles in the price-earning ratio are strong and better...

The ultimate goal of risk management is the generation of efficient incomes. The objective is to generate the maximum return for a unit of risk taken or to minimise the risk taken to generate the return expected i.e. it is the optimisation of a financial institution strategy. Therefore, by...

Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is a technique that provides approximate solutions to a broad range of mathematical problems. A drawback of the method is its high computational cost, especially in a high-dimensional setting. Estimating the Tail Value-at-Risk for large portfolios or pricing basket...

The forecasting literature has identified three important and broad issues: the predictive content is unstable over time, in-sample and out-of-sample discordant results and the problematic statistical inference with highly persistent predictors. In this paper, we simultaneously address these...

In this paper, we propose an alternative approach to estimate long-term risk. Instead of using the static square root method, we use a dynamic approach based on volatility forecasting by non-linear models. We explore the possibility of improving the estimations by different models and...

In this paper, we propose a flexible tool to estimate the risk sensitivity of a high-dimensional portfolio composed of different classes of assets, especially in extreme risk circumstances. We build a so-called Cvine Risk Factors Model (CRFM), which is a non-linear version of a risk factor model...

Researchers in finance very often rely on highly persistent Ñ nearly integrated Ñ explanatory variables to predict returns. This paper proposes to stand up to the usual problem of persistent regressor bias, by detrending the highly auto-correlated predictors. We find that the statistical...

In this paper, we provide exact formulas for the pricing of European options under the risk neutral measure, whereas under the historic measure the data follow two types of models : a GARCH process with Lévy innovations, or a GARCH process with Poisson jumps. This approach aims to take...

In this paper we propose new option pricing models based on class of models with jump contain in the Lévy-type based models (NIG-Lévy, Merton-jump (Merton 1976) and Duan based model (Duan 2007)). By combining these different class of models with several volatility dynamics of the GARCH type,...

In this paper we propose new option pricing models based on class of models with jump contain in the Lévy-type based models (NIG-Lévy, Merton-jump (Merton 1976) and Duan based model (Duan 2007)). By combining these different class of models with several volatility dynamics of the GARCH type,...