This paper analyzes the robustness of emerging economies growth performance to a number of external demand shocks using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model with informative priors on the steady state. Using quarterly data from 1993 to 2011 for global financial conditions and external...

Much attention has been paid to the sharp fall in world trade associated with the economic crisis during the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. Alarming forecasts have been published for the whole year of 2009 and several explanations have been offered. In particular, beyond the...

Despite impressive economic growth between 1999 and 2007, there is a fear that Russia may suffer the Dutch disease, which predicts that a country with large natural resource rents may experience a de-industrialisation and a lower long term economic growth. We study whether there are symptoms of...

In a fixed exchange-rate regime, monetary policy is not devoted to internal equilibrium, such that the Taylor principle is no more the condition to insure the determinacy of the dynamic. Monetary policy is in charge of stabilizing the fixed-exchange rate regime in the long run, i.e. to avoid an...

Most studies on equilibrium exchange rates focus on a limited number of G7 countries. But in a situation of world imbalances, emerging countries can no longer be excluded. The study of all equilibrium exchange rates is delicate. First, the trade model has to be balanced at the aggregate level....

This paper aims at studying current-account imbalances by paying a particular attention to exchange-rate misalignments. We rely on a nonlinear model linking the persistence of current account imbalances to the deviation of the exchange rate to its equilibrium value. Estimating a panel smooth...