Much attention has been paid to the sharp fall in world trade associated with the economic crisis during the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. Alarming forecasts have been published for the whole year of 2009 and several explanations have been offered. In particular, beyond the...

Despite impressive economic growth between 1999 and 2007, there is a fear that Russia may suffer the Dutch disease, which predicts that a country with large natural resource rents may experience a de-industrialisation and a lower long term economic growth. We study whether there are symptoms of...

This paper analyzes the robustness of emerging economies growth performance to a number of external demand shocks using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model with informative priors on the steady state. Using quarterly data from 1993 to 2011 for global financial conditions and external...

The aim of this paper is to investigate oil price shocks’ effects and their associated transmission channels on global imbalances. To this end, we rely on a Global VAR approach that allows us to account for trade and financial interdependencies between countries. Considering a sample of 30...

This paper aims at investigating the interactions between three key macroeconomic imbalances, namely Global imbalances,current-account discrepancies (external imbalances), output gaps (internal imbalances), and exchange-rate misalignments. To this end, we rely on the estimation of a panel VAR...

We assess the evolution of real exchange rate misalignments within the euro area from a Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) approach. We test the robustness of the results by comparing three different estimations of the output gap. Whatever the output gap assumption, Southern countries...