parameter estimates, especially those that affect the risk of a black swan, explain most of the shocks to uncertainty …

those outcomes. This subjective uncertainty measure correlates positively with financial risk measures. Drawing on the …

This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum … in indirect ways, the former applying classical statistical theory and the latter measuring prediction accuracy in test … samples. Neither approach is satisfactory. Statistical decision theory provides a coherent, generally applicable methodology …

initiated his own seminal development of statistical decision theory. Haavelmo favorably cited Wald, but econometrics … subsequently did not embrace statistical decision theory. Instead, it focused on study of identification, estimation, and … statistical inference. This paper proposes statistical decision theory as a framework for evaluation of the performance of models …

We argue that comprehensive out-of-sample (OOS) evaluation using statistical decision theory (SDT) should replace the …