parameter estimates, especially those that affect the risk of a black swan, explain most of the shocks to uncertainty …

those outcomes. This subjective uncertainty measure correlates positively with financial risk measures. Drawing on the …

pricing theory: the persistence of the short rate and variability of the long end of the yield curve. We suggest that this …

-varying asset risk assessments in accounting for what, on the basis of many earlier studies, appear to be time-varying differentials … risk premia are constant over time. Third, although for long-term debt the two statistical methods used here give sharply … representation of equity risk by a single normally distributed disturbance is overly restrictive …

dividend yield is typically viewed as a reflection of either changing risk, related to the business cycle, or irrational … risk as well as expected return, we develop Bayesian methods to examine the interaction between the data and an investor … and a riskless asset. In general, however, the simple risk/return model of Merton (1980) explains very little of the yield …