Showing 1 - 8 of 8
A good set of forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators is useful for making informed policy decisions.  This analysis undertakes to perform joint forecasting of vital time series in large Bayesian VAR framework for an emerging economy such as India, where policy decisions are further...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010860442
The aim of this handbook is to introduce key topics in Bayesian econometrics from an applied perspective. The handbook assumes that readers have a fair grasp of basic classical econometrics (e.g. maximum likelihood estimation).  It is recommended that readers familiarise themselves with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011031866
We examine the importance of macroeconomic effects of changes in asset prices and credit aggregates for the Russian economy.  We show that the amplitude of the fluctuations of asset prices and lending was exceptionally large in 2006-2009.  This implies that the asset price and the lending...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010584148
The authors reassess the predictive power of financial indicators for output and inflation in the US by studying predictive densities generated by set of linear and nonlinear forecasting models.  They argue that, if the linkage between financial and real economy is state-dependent as implied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010683769
We use a unique dataset on television prices across European countries and regions to investigate the sources of differences in price levels. Our findings are as follows: (i) Quality is a crucial determinant of price differences. Even in an integrated economic zone as Europe, rich economies tend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463231
This article summarizes our views on the role of an "aggregation bias" in explaining the PPP Puzzle, in response to the several papers recently written in reaction to our initial contribution. We discuss in particular the criticisms of Imbs, Mumtaz, Ravn and Rey (2002) presented in Chen and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467070
We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that established time series and panel methods substantially exaggerate the persistence of real exchange rates because of heterogeneity in the dynamics of disaggregated relative prices. When...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469331
We study the persistent effects of temporary changes in U.S. federal corporate and personal income tax rates using a narrative identification approach. A corporate income tax cut leads to a sustained increase in GDP and productivity, with peak effects between five and eight years. R&D spending...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334463