Standard linear macroeconomic models generate business cycles around a unique equilibrium through random productivity or preference shocks. Dynamic nonlinear models with multiple equilibria have the potential for endogenous fluctuations without exogenous shocks. This paper combines both...

The Beveridge-Nelson (BN) technique provides a forecast based method of decomposing a variable, such as output, into trend and cycle when the variable is integrated of order one (I(1). This paper considers the multivariate generalization of the BN decomposition when the information set includes...