Uncertainty is a ubiquitous concern emphasized by policymakers. We study how uncertainty affects decision-making by the … Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We distinguish between the notion of Fed-managed uncertainty vis-a-vis uncertainty that …-managed uncertainty introduces a wedge between the standard Taylor-type policy rule and the optimal decision. Using private Fed …

games, beauty contests, and their applications. We elaborate on the distinct effects of strategic uncertainty relative to … fundamental uncertainty. We demonstrate the potential fragility of workhorse macroeconomic models to relaxations of common …

setting, an increase in uncertainty about future shocks causes significant contractions in the economy and may lead to non … outcomes. Fluctuations in uncertainty and the zero lower bound help our model match the unconditional and stochastic volatility …

In this research, we provide new empirical evidence on the importance of time-varying uncertainty for the exchange rate … and the excess return in currency markets. Following an increase in monetary policy uncertainty, the dollar exchange rate …-varying uncertainty aimed at understanding these regularities. In the model, the behaviour of the exchange rate following nominal and real …

("uncertainty"), we find that a lax monetary policy decreases both risk aversion and uncertainty, with the former effect being …

dominate, in that public releases increase uncertainty about fundamentals. In some cases, public releases can create or …

We study the design of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We … use a Markov jump-linear-quadratic (MJLQ) approach to study policy design, approximating the uncertainty by different … a benchmark New Keynesian model, analyzing how policy is affected by uncertainty, and how learning and active …

uncertainty, so-called Markov jump-linear-quadratic systems extended to include forward-looking variables. The form of model … uncertainty our framework encompasses includes: simple i.i.d. model deviations; serially correlated model deviations; estimable … regime-switching models; more complex structural uncertainty about very different models, for instance, backward- and forward …