This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

In a model of incomplete, heterogeneous information, with externalities and strategic interactions, we analyze the possibility for learning to act as coordination device. We build on the framework proposed by Angeletos and Pavan (2007) and extend it to a dynamic multiperiod setting where agents...

This paper approaches the problem of knowledge accumulation by the management team of organizations, but specially that ones focused on obtaining profit in order to obtain competitive advantage. After a brief presentation of the general context, the idea of continuing learning as investment is...

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

A theorem of existence of ruptures in the probability scale has been proven. The theorem can be used, e.g., in economics and forecasting. It can assist to solve paradoxes such as Allais paradox and the “four-fold-pattern” paradox and to create the correcting formula of forecasting.

As is considered in this paper，none of the ever existing long wave theories can totally describe or correctly explain the chronic fluctuating characters of the capitalist world economy system since the year 1857. Based on Karl Marx’s greatest work “Capital” and combined with considerable...

In the article, we review recent literature on fiscal sustainability with particular reference to problems that are specific to transition countries. While the original literature on fiscal sustainability is chiefly focused on industrial countries there are by now few works that have focused on...

A general correcting formula of forecasting (as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts) is proposed. The formula provides new forecasting resources and areas of application including economic forecasting.

The theorem of existence of ruptures in the probability scale has been proved. The theorem can be used, e.g., in economics and forecasting. It can assist to solve paradoxes such as Allais paradox and the “four-fold-pattern” paradox and to create the correcting formula of forecasting.

This paper proposes full-Bayes priors for time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) which are more robust and objective than existing choices proposed in the literature. We formulate the priors in a way that they allow for straightforward posterior computation, they require...