The unbiased expectations hypothesis states that forward rates are unbiased estimates for future short rates. Cox, Ingersoll and Ross [1] conjectured that this hypothesis should be inconsistent with the absence of arbitrage possibilities. Using the framework of Heath, Jarrow and Morton [4] we...

In this paper we investigate four hypotheses which are inconsistent with expected utility theory, but may well be explained by prospect theory. It deals with framing, the non-linearity of subjective probabilities, the disposition effect, and the correspondence of different experimental risk...

This paper presents an analysis of tax clientele effects in the German government bond market from the viewpoint of private investors. The methods developed here allow the identification of bonds that are over-valued from the viewpoint of a certain tax class, the estimation of tax-specific term...

This paper proposes linear higher order conditions on the term structure that allow to compute valuation bounds for any deterministic cash stream. Starting from bounds on the forward rate curve and its derivatives, which are nonlinear in the discount factors, we derive linear conditions that are...

We examine overconfidence among equity mutual fund managers. While overconfidencehas been extensively documented among retail investors, evidence fromprofessional investors is scarce. Consistent with theories of overconfidence, we findthat fund managers trade more after good past performance....

Recent empirical research suggests that measures of investor sentimenthave predictive power for future stock returns over the intermediate and longterm. Given the widespread publication of sentiment indicators, smart investorsshould trade on the information conveyed by such indicators and...

This paper investigates the returns and °ows of German money marketfunds before and during the liquidity crisis of 2007/2008. The main¯ndings of this paper are: in liquid times, money market funds en-hanced their returns by investing in less liquid papers. By doing sothey outperformed other...

This paper investigates whether investor sentiment can explain stock returns on theGerman stock market. Based on a principal component analysis, we construct a senti-ment indicator that condenses information of several well-known sentiment proxies. Weshow that this indicator explains the return...

We provide a framework for the analysis of term structures of credit spreads on corporate bonds in the presence of informational asymmetries. While bond investors observe default incidents, we suppose that they have incomplete information on the firm's assets and/or the threshold asset level at...

The overvaluation hypothesis (Miller 1977) predicts that a) stocks are overvalued inthe presence of short selling restrictions and that b) the overvaluation increases in the degree ofdivergence of opinion. We design an experiment that allows us to test these predictions in thelaboratory. The...