The forward premium is a notoriously poor predictor of exchange rate movements. This failure must reflect deviations from risk neutrality and/or rational expectations. In addition, a mechanism is needed that generates the appropriate correlation between the forward premium and shocks arising...

This paper presents a simple model of optimal reserves that can be easily calibrated to compute optimal reserves as well as the implied probability of a sudden stop for given reserves. The model builds upon the global games framework of Morris and Shin to establish a unique relationship between...