I construct a micro-model to show that a currency crisis can spread from one country to another even when these countries are unrelated in terms of economic fundamentals and there is no capital linkage across countries through a common lender or an interbank market. The key to explaining...

This paper studies the implications of the presence of a large speculator like George Soros during a contagious currency crisis. The model proposes a new contagion channel and shows how a currency crisis can spread from one country to another even when these countries are totally unrelated in...

Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s, the choice of the exchange rate regime has been the subject of a lively debate in international finance. In this study, we investigate the determinants of three exchange rate regimes (fixed, flexible and intermediate). Our...

A common feature of numerous studies on early warning systems (EWS) of currency crisis is the use of an index of exchange market pressure, defined as a weighted average of the rate of depreciation, the monthly percentage changes in international reserves, and sometimes the inclusion of the...

This paper proposes a model encompassing alternative views of contagion by highlighting the different channels of transmission of financial crises in an unifying framework. We study investor behaviour when they are affected by external habit formation. It is shown how international portfolio...

Global games are games of incomplete information whose type space is determined by the players each observing a noisy signal of the underlying state. With strategic complementarities, global games often have a unique, dominance solvable equilibrium, allowing analysis of a number of economic...

Global games are games of incomplete information whose type space is determined by the players each observing a noisy signal of the underlying state. With strategic complementarities, global games often have a unique, dominance solvable equilibrium, allowing analysis of a number of economic...

This paper makes several contributions to the literature on the important yet difficult problem of estimating functions nonparametrically using instrumental variables. First, we derive the minimax optimal sup-norm convergence rates for nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) estimation of...

We introduce a dynamic banking–macro model, which abstains from conventional mean– reversion assumptions and in which—similar to Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2010)—adverse asset–price movements and their impact on risk premia and credit spreads can induce instabilities in the banking...

In this paper we analyse bootstrap procedures for systems cointegration tests with a prior adjustment for deterministic terms suggested by Saikkonen & Lütkepohl (2000b) and Saikkonen, Lütkepohl & Trenkler (2006). The asymptotic properties of the bootstrap test procedures are derived and their...