In this paper, the regression discontinuity design (RDD) is generalized to account for differences in observed covariates X in a fully nonparametric way. It is shown that the treatment effect can be estimated at the rate for one-dimensional nonparametric regression irrespective of the dimension...

We propose a flexible GARCH-type model for the prediction of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies on the idea of using multivariate B-splines of lagged observations and volatilities. Estimation of such a B-spline basis expansion is constructed within the likelihood framework...

We propose a new semi-parametric model for the implied volatility surface, which incorporates machine learning algorithms. Given a starting model, a tree-boosting algorithm sequentially minimizes the residuals of observed and estimated implied volatility. To overcome the poor predicting power of...

We propose the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model for the estimation and prediction of realized correlations. We construct a realized correlation measure where both the volatilities and the covariances are computed from tick-by-tick data. As for the realized volatility, the presence of...

We propose a new multivariate GARCH model with Dynamic Conditional Correlations that extends previous models by admitting multivariate thresholds in conditional volatilities and correlations. The model estimation is feasible in large dimensions and the positive deniteness of the conditional...

Primary school enrolment rates are very low in francophone Africa. In order to enhance education supply, many countries have launched large teacher recruitment programmes in recent years, whereby teachers are no longer engaged on civil servant positions, but on the basis of (fixed-term)...

We propose a general robust semiparametric bootstrap method to estimate conditional predictive distributions of GARCH-type models. Our approach is based on a robust estimator for the parameters in GARCH-type models and a robustified resampling method for standardized GARCH residuals, which...