This 1977 paper is one of several by Alaouze about estimating Armington elasticities for the ORANI model. It postulates that during periods of high demand, domestic producers are unable to supply goods promptly and so purchasers must wait for delivery. The implicit cost of waiting for domestic...

Computable general equilibrium models can be used to generate detailed forecasts of output growth for commodities/industries. The main objective is to provide realistic baselines from which to calculate the effects of policy changes. In this paper, we assess a CGE forecasting method that has...

We use MVN - a dynamic CGE model of the Vietnamese economy - to investigate the Vietnamese economy's rapid growth and structural change over the period 1996 to 2003. We do this in two steps. First, we estimate changes in variables representing production technologies, consumer preferences,...

We derive formulas for the optimal tariff rate in four theoretical models. We start with a model in which industries are competitive and then successively allow for: monopoly pricing by export industries; revenue-replacement costs; and cold-shower effects. The theoretical formulas accurately...

Two large applied general equilibrium models, GTAP and MONASH, are used in this paper to simulate the elimination of trade barriers among the members of APEC. These models focus respectively on global trading relations and on the detailed sectoral, occupational, and regional dimensions of the...

In this paper, I use the Monash Multi-Country (MMC) model - a dynamic CGE model of China, Australia and the Rest of the World - to analyse the effects of removing border protection on wheat and rice in China. The analysis points to the possibility that removing border protection on wheat and...

MC-HUGE is a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. The core CGE part of the MC-HUGE model is based on that of the ORANI model. The dynamic mechanism of MC-HUGE is based on that of the MONASH model. This paper documents how the MC-HUGE model is calibrated to China's...

This paper describes a practical and conceptually simple iterative method for solving large dynamic CGE models under rational expectations. Details are given for the MONASH model of Australia but the general approach could be applied to a wide range of dynamic models. The method has been...

This empirical study of Armington elasticities between Australian domestically produced commodities and imported commodities of the same name follows directly from Alaouze, Marsden and Zeitsch [AMZ] (1977) (see Impact Project Working Paper O-11, available from this web site). In the present...

This paper explains why evidence-based trade policy decision making is heavily reliant on results generated by CGE models and why the development and application of these modelling has been particularly active in Australia. The paper provides a short history of CGE modelling and describes the...