We estimate a forward looking New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for the U.S. using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters as proxy for expected inflation. We find that the NKPC captures inflation dynamics well, independent from whether output or unit labor costs are used as a measure...

This paper introduces directed search into the sequential search model of Diamond (1971) by allowing buyers to observe the distribution of prices charged by two (or more) distinct subgroups of firms in the market. This enables buyers to direct their searches towards the most desirable group of...

This paper considers a linear-quadratic control problem and determines how optimal policy is affected when the private sector has finite (Shannon) capacity to process information. Such capacity constraints prevent private agents from perfectly observing the state variables and the policy...

We show how low-frequency boom and bust cycles in asset prices can emerge from Bayesian learning by investors. Investors rationally maximize infinite horizon utility but hold subjective priors about the asset return process that we allow to differ infinitesimally from the rational expectations...

This paper compares Bayesian decision theory with robust decision theory where the decision maker optimizes with respect to the worst state realization. For a class of robust decision problems there exists a sequence of Bayesian decision problems whose solution converges towards the robust...

PricesThis paper studies the properties of adaptive learning as a device to select amongst the rational expectations equilibria of a monetary overlapping generations model. It extends previous contributions by introducing monopolistic competition and improves upon them by analyzing learning in a...