This paper assesses the role of surveys for the early estimates of GDP in the euro area in a model-based automated procedures which exploits the timeliness of their release. The analysis is conducted using both an historical evaluation and a real time case study on the current conjuncture.

Exploiting three earthquakes in Italy as quasi-experiments, we analyze the response of homeowners’ consumption to transfers targeted to finance housing repair and reconstruction. To the extent that funds are made available up-front, these transfers are akin to loans, mainly affecting the...

We use a 12-dimensional VAR to examine the dynamic e®ects on the labor market of four structural technology and policy shocks. For each shock, we examine the dynamic effects on the labor market, the importance of the shock for labor market volatility, and the comovement between labor market...

Using a dynamic factor model, we uncover four main empirical regularities on international comovements in a long-run panel of real and nominal variables. First, the contribution of world comovements to domestic output growth has decreased over the post-WWII period. The contribution of regional...

A law issued to combat political corruption and ma.a in.ltration of city councils in Italy has resulted in episodes of large, unanticipated, temporary contractions in local public spending. Using these episodes as instruments, we estimate the output multiplier of spending cuts at provincial...

This paper relies on sectoral-level data to interpret aggregate fluctuations of labor productivity and employment in US as due to exogenous disturbances. A shock determining permanent effect on the real investment good price may reasonably be interpreted as an investment-specific technology...

Since 2008, euro-area sovereign yields have diverged sharply, and so have the corresponding CDS premia. At the same time, banks’ sovereign debt portfolios featured an increasing home bias. We investigate the relationship between these two facts, and its rationale. First, we inquire to what...

We analyze the reaction of the U.S. Treasury bond market to innovations in macroe-economic fundamentals. We identify these innovations based on macroeconomic news, which are defined as differences between the actual releases and market expectations. We find that that macroeconomic news explain...

This paper evaluates the effects of the 2012 announcements of the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme. Using high frequency data, we find that the OMT announcements decreased the Italian and Spanish two years government bond yields by about two percentage points, while leaving...