Over the past two decades, respondents to the Shiller Investor Confidence Surveys assess the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash to be much higher that the historical frequency of such events. We decompose these crash probabilities into fundamental and subjective components and use...

We develop a jackknife estimator for the conditional variance of a minimum-tracking- error-variance portfolio constructed using estimated covariances. We empirically evaluate the performance of our estimator using an optimal portfolio of 200 stocks that has the lowest tracking error with respect...

Anleitung für eine sachgerechte und systematische Wertpapieranalyse. In der Praxis und an Hochschulen gut eingeführtes Standardwerk. Neu: Auswirkungen der Niedrigzinspolitik und ausführliche Darstellung von Commodities. Von den Grundlagen des Wertpapiermanagements bis zur Messung des...

The life-cycle accounts proposal for Social Security reform has been justified by its proponents using a number of different arguments, but these arguments generally involve the assumption of a high likelihood of good returns on the accounts. A simulation is undertaken to estimate the...