This paper analyses the effectiveness of the spread between short and long term interest rates for predicting GDP growth in Australia, and whether the predictive relation deteriorates, as theory suggests, with the adoption of a credible inflation-targeting regime. We test whether predic- tive...

Developed economies, experiencing concomitant declining fertility and rising educational attainment, have introduced policies to boost fertility. We model substitution of bought in services for parental time in the rearing and education of children in an economy where technological progress...

In this paper, we show that Ricardian equivalence does not hold in a representative agent framework if one considers goods whose current consumption affect future marginal utilities. We find that, when the intertemporal elasticity of substitution changes over time, the timing of lump sum...

Economic theory predicts that reciprocal brokered deposits, by facilitating an extension of deposit insurance coverage, may exacerbate moral hazard and reduce market discipline for banks, permitting them to take more risk in various dimensions. Using a newly available dataset, this note explores...

We propose a methodology for producing forecast densities for economic aggregates based on disaggregate evidence. Our ensemble predictive methodology utilizes a linear mixture of experts framework to combine the forecast densities from potentially many component models. Each component represents...

This paper tests the random walk hypothesis and weak form market efficiency in the VIX futures market using a variety of tests. A unit root in the aggregated market price series suggests that the VIX futures market is efficient. For the individual VIX futures price series, 51 of 54 futures...

Using data for six Asian miracle economies over the period from 1953 to 2006, this paper examines the extent to which growth has been driven by R&D and tests which second-generation endogenous growth model is most consistent with the data. The results give strong support to Schumpeterian growth...

We introduce inventories into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model and study the implications for inflation dynamics. Inventory holdings are motivated as a means to generate sales for demand-constrained firms. We derive various representa- tions of the New Keynesian Phillips curve with...

Life-cycle theory predicts ageing exerting long-term macroeconomic impacts through the reduction of private savings. However, empirical research studying macroeconomic determinants of savings generally regard age dependency as the sole measure of ageing, but overlook longevity, which can also...

We introduce inventories into a standard New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to study the effect on the design of optimal monetary policy. The possibility of inventory investment changes the transmission mechanism in the model by decoupling production from final...