Showing 1 - 10 of 55
This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new survey panel on German manufacturing firms, we show that uncertainty reflects change: Planning incorporates higher subjective uncertainty about future sales growth when the firm has just experienced unusual growth, and more so if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660107
In this paper, we empirically assess the causal links between trade and individual income risk and study the role that … 2012. Our estimates suggest substantial heterogeneity in labor income risk across workers in different entry cohorts and …-industry changes in imports and exports are causally related to income risk: Imports increase risk and exports decrease risk, and they …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794639
. In the process we integrate a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) restriction on overall plan costs into the pension manager …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464316
In 1997 Chancellor Kohl proposed a major pension reform and pushed the law through Parliament explaining that the German PAYG system had become unsustainable. One limitation of the new law -- one that is crucial for our identification strategy -- is that it left the generous pension entitlements...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464736
risk. This study develops the concept of "political risk" as the possibility that some future legislature will be forced to … and macroeconomic variables that support it. Thus there is a "political risk" to participants that might be compared to … the "market risk" in a personal accounts retirement scheme. In this paper, we carry out a detailed quantitative analysis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466520
Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012496179
Are fluctuations in firms' profitability risk a major cause of regular business cycles? We study this question within … such a model, surprise increases of risk lead to a wait-and-see policy for investment at the firm level and a decrease in … the size of firm-level risk fluctuations. We find that time-varying firm-level risk on its own is unlikely to be a major …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461796
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000321953